Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.6#4
Expected Predictive Rating+18.3#6
Pace83.4#5
Improvement-2.2#253

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#10
Improvement-1.0#219

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#8
Improvement-1.2#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 11.3% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 59.2% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 98.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round94.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen73.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight53.3% n/a n/a
Final Four32.2% n/a n/a
Championship Game17.9% n/a n/a
National Champion9.5% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2011 3   Michigan St. W 67-55 47%     1 - 0 +31.4 +3.1 +28.0
  Nov 13, 2011 122   @ UNC Asheville W 91-75 87%     2 - 0 +22.5 +7.5 +13.2
  Nov 20, 2011 243   Mississippi Valley W 101-75 98%     3 - 0 +17.8 +1.6 +10.3
  Nov 22, 2011 165   Tennessee St. W 102-69 97%     4 - 0 +29.7 +19.9 +7.0
  Nov 25, 2011 157   South Carolina W 87-62 94%     5 - 0 +25.8 +7.2 +16.4
  Nov 26, 2011 26   UNLV L 80-90 75%     5 - 1 +1.6 +2.9 +0.0
  Nov 30, 2011 12   Wisconsin W 60-57 76%     6 - 1 +14.3 +1.9 +12.8
  Dec 03, 2011 1   @ Kentucky L 72-73 29%     6 - 2 +23.3 +13.9 +9.4
  Dec 06, 2011 113   Evansville W 97-48 94%     7 - 2 +49.4 +9.4 +34.0
  Dec 10, 2011 39   Long Beach St. W 84-78 87%     8 - 2 +12.6 +5.4 +6.6
  Dec 17, 2011 255   Appalachian St. W 97-82 99%     9 - 2 +6.0 +12.3 -7.3
  Dec 19, 2011 326   Nicholls St. W 99-49 99.5%    10 - 2 +34.0 -5.8 +29.9
  Dec 21, 2011 25   Texas W 82-63 83%     11 - 2 +27.2 +10.1 +16.7
  Dec 29, 2011 261   Elon W 100-62 99%     12 - 2 +28.6 +3.4 +17.9
  Jan 01, 2012 291   Monmouth W 102-65 99%     13 - 2 +25.9 +9.8 +10.9
  Jan 07, 2012 252   Boston College W 83-60 99%     14 - 2 1 - 0 +14.2 +1.1 +11.3
  Jan 10, 2012 41   Miami (FL) W 73-56 88%     15 - 2 2 - 0 +23.0 -0.4 +22.9
  Jan 14, 2012 22   @ Florida St. L 57-90 60%     15 - 3 2 - 1 -16.9 -10.0 -4.2
  Jan 19, 2012 80   @ Virginia Tech W 82-68 80%     16 - 3 3 - 1 +23.5 +12.2 +11.0
  Jan 26, 2012 43   North Carolina St. W 74-55 88%     17 - 3 4 - 1 +24.6 +0.6 +23.6
  Jan 29, 2012 170   Georgia Tech W 93-81 97%     18 - 3 5 - 1 +8.4 +11.7 -4.5
  Jan 31, 2012 195   @ Wake Forest W 68-53 93%     19 - 3 6 - 1 +16.6 -3.5 +20.3
  Feb 04, 2012 125   @ Maryland W 83-74 87%     20 - 3 7 - 1 +15.3 +4.9 +9.7
  Feb 08, 2012 15   Duke L 84-85 78%     20 - 4 7 - 2 +9.5 +9.5 +0.0
  Feb 11, 2012 31   Virginia W 70-52 85%     21 - 4 8 - 2 +25.5 +6.5 +19.5
  Feb 15, 2012 41   @ Miami (FL) W 73-64 71%     22 - 4 9 - 2 +21.8 +9.2 +13.1
  Feb 18, 2012 82   Clemson W 74-52 92%     23 - 4 10 - 2 +24.6 +5.6 +19.7
  Feb 21, 2012 43   @ North Carolina St. W 86-74 72%     24 - 4 11 - 2 +24.4 +20.7 +4.1
  Feb 25, 2012 31   @ Virginia W 54-51 66%     25 - 4 12 - 2 +17.3 -2.1 +19.7
  Feb 29, 2012 125   Maryland W 88-64 95%     26 - 4 13 - 2 +23.5 +4.3 +16.7
  Mar 03, 2012 15   @ Duke W 88-70 55%     27 - 4 14 - 2 +35.3 +18.2 +16.6
  Mar 09, 2012 125   Maryland W 85-69 92%     28 - 4 +18.9 +5.4 +12.2
  Mar 10, 2012 43   North Carolina St. W 69-67 82%     29 - 4 +11.0 -5.1 +16.0
  Mar 11, 2012 22   Florida St. L 82-85 72%     29 - 5 +9.7 +16.6 -6.9
Projected Record 29.0 - 5.0 14.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.4 59.2 38.8 2.0 0.0 100.0%
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 59.2 38.8 2.0 0.0 100.0%